Monday, 17 December 2012

By-Elections Preview: 19/20 December 2012

The last act of the psephological year for 2012 will be five local by-elections in the week before Christmas.  Three of them, unusually are being held on Wednesday 19th December: Labour and the Green Party have safe wards to defend in Norwich, while the Liberal Democrats also have a safe seat up in Sunbury-on-Thames.  On Thursday 20th it's the Tories' turn to defend safe wards, with county and district council seats up for election in the Gravesend area.

By-elections on Wednesday 19th December:

Norwich City Council; caused respectively by the resignations of Labour and Green Party councillors.  Jenny Lay, outgoing Labour councillor for Crome ward and Lord Mayor of Norwich in 2011/12, has been diagnosed with cancer, while former Nelson ward councillor David Rogers has spectacularly fallen out with the Green Party.

City Hall, Norwich
  © Copyright Katy Walters and licensed for reuse
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Rather unusually, here we have two wards that are named after people.  Nelson ward is obviously named in honour of Admiral Lord Nelson, the victor of Trafalgar, while Crome ward is named after John Crome, the founder of the Norwich school of painters.

The Crome ward is the most north-easterly ward of Norwich city, although its external boundaries are entirely built up as the city limits haven't kept pace with the growth of Norwich suburbia.  The ward includes the city's prison and part of Mousehold Heath, known for its role in Kett's Rebellion of 1549 and painted by Crome in about 1818-1820.  In later years much of the ward was the site of the first Norwich Airport, now redeveloped into the Heartsease housing estate which contains most of Crome ward's population.

The Heartsease estate is a pretty deprived area, and that contributes to this being a safe Labour ward in current political conditions.  In the May 2012 election the ward had the largest Labour majority in Norwich (884 votes).  Labour did come fairly close to losing it at the height of their unpopularity in the Brown years, being just 99 votes ahead of the Conservatives at the June 2009 Norfolk county council election (Norwich's wards and county council divisions have the same boundaries) but Labour have pulled away strongly since then.

Nelson ward is a complete contrast.  Just west of the city centre and stretching west from the city's cathedral, this entirely built-up ward has some of the most upmarket residential areas in the city.  The recently-released 2011 census statistics also show this is a student area, with 20% of the ward's population being aged between 20 and 24; the ward is not far from the University of East Anglia campus and borders the city's University ward.

Given these demographics, it's probably not much of a surprise to find that Nelson is Norwich's strongest Green Party ward.  Since gaining the ward when it was drawn on its current boundaries in 2004 the Greens have never been seriously threatened here at city or county council level.  One of the ward's former councillors is Adrian Ramsay, former deputy leader of the party who stood down from the council in 2011.  Labour have occupied the runner-up spot here since 2008.

So, a couple of by-elections in what are possibly the two least interesting wards in Norwich from a psephological point of view.  In Crome ward the Labour candidate is Marion Maxwell, who wasn't far off gaining the city-centre Mancroft ward from the Greens in May; she had success in a recent campaign to stop Norwich's streetlights being switched off at midnight.  She will be opposed by former Tory councillor and 2009/10 Lord Mayor Eve Collishaw, who lost her seat in Catton Grove ward last year; Judith Ford for the Greens, who, like Collishaw, fought Catton Grove in May this year; Michael Sutton-Croft for the Lib Dems, who works in the environmental department of Norwich County Council; and Glenn Tingle for UKIP, an ex-Army medic who fought the Norwich North parliamentary by-election in 2009.

Like Labour in Crome, the Greens in Nelson have gone for a candidate with a proven track record: Andrew Boswell who has been the ward's county councillor since 2005.  His main opposition will come from UEA student Layla Dickerson who is the Labour candidate.  Also standing are Alexandra Davies for the Tories, who fought this ward in May, and the Lib Dems' Helen Whitworth, who stood in Wensum ward in May and had the dubious distinction of being the lowest-polling candidate in the city.

Norfolk county council division: Crome
Parliamentary constituency: Norwich North
ONS Travel to Work Area: Norwich

Evelyn Collishaw (C)
Judith Ford (Grn)
Marion Maxwell (Lab)
Michael Sutton-Croft (LD)
Glenn Tingle (UKIP)

May 2012 result Lab 1272 C 388 Grn 273 LD 125
May 2011 result Lab 1450 C 684 Grn 267 UKIP 217 LD 148
Sept 2010 result Lab 1085 C 543 Grn 199 LD 137 UKIP 100
June 2009 county council result Lab 811 C 712 Grn 518 LD 381
May 2008 result Lab 954 C 704 Grn 348 LD 273
May 2007 result Lab 1110 C 684 LD 402 Grn 303
May 2006 result Lab 1058 C 645 LD 357 Grn 296
May 2005 county council result Lab 2110 LD 896 C 866 Grn 242
June 2004 result Lab 1025/927/825 C 567/479/465 LD 505/480/475 Grn 284/241/208 Legalise Cannabis Alliance 79

Norfolk county council division: Nelson
Parliamentary constituency: Norwich South
ONS Travel to Work Area: Norwich

Andrew Boswell (Grn)
Alexandra Davies (C)
Layla Dickerson (Lab)
Helen Whitworth (LD)

May 2012 result Grn 1644 Lab 697 C 249 LD 173
Sept 2010 result Grn 1297 Lab 535 LD 198 C 186
June 2009 county council result Grn 2103 Lab 421 LD 420 C 355
May 2008 result Grn 1906 Lab 359 LD 356 C 283
May 2007 result Grn 1899 LD 518 Lab 397 C 271
May 2006 result Grn 1805 LD 523 Lab 353 C 264
May 2005 county council result Grn 2135 LD 1270 Lab 879 C 467
June 2004 result Grn 1691/1643/1624 LD 1128/1047/823 Lab 416/405/366 C 241/232/223 Legalise Cannabis Alliance 158 Ind 143


Spelthorne Borough Council, Surrey; caused by the resignation of Independent councillor Robbie Collison-Crawford.  Cllr Collison-Crawford has been suffering from ill-health and was also the subject of a scandal this year after a small number of child porn images were found on his council laptop; Collison-Crawford's son was found to be responsible for this and received a police caution.  Collison-Crawford was elected as a Liberal Democrat but had been sitting as an independent since the scandal broke.

Rush hour traffic at Sunbury Cross
  © Copyright Rod Allday and licensed for reuse
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In the traditionally Middlesex part of Surrey, Sunbury-on-Thames is the first town you hit at the end of the M3 motorway on the way into London.  To outsiders it's probably best known as the location of Kempton Park racecourse, venue for the King George VI Chase each Boxing Day, and as the original home of the London Irish rugby union team (who now play their home matches in Reading).  However, neither of these are in Sunbury Common ward, which is a triangular shaped ward to the north and west of the Sunbury Cross roundabout at the end of the motorway, bounded to the west by the A244 Cadbury Road and Windmill Road.  This is a generally residential and industrial area, with BP and Chubb being major employers.  The ward is probably the least middle-class ward in Sunbury, although that isn't saying much.

Spelthorne is a generally middle-class area.  The Tories generally clean up at the Staines end of the borough having seen off the Labour threat (at the 2011 elections Labour only contested the Heathrow-influenced Stanwell North ward), but the Lib Dems have more strength in Sunbury and this is by far the strongest Lib Dem ward in the whole of Spelthorne, actually swinging towards the Lib Dems at the most recent election in 2011.

The Lib Dems have selected Bernie Spoor to hold the by-election; he is a retired computing expert who also worked as an engineer for London Underground, and has been married for fifty years; he fought Halliford and Sunbury West ward at the 2011 elections and is the only candidate to give a Sunbury address.  By contrast the Conservatives have gone for youth; their candidate Matthew Want, who appears to be in his early twenties, owns a taxi company in nearby Shepperton and works for Executive Secretary magazine.  UKIP have selected Bob Bromley, who lives in the neighbouring town of Ashford and fought an Ashford ward last year.  Finally, Labour have decided to re-enter Spelthorne politics by nominating John Went, from Shepperton, who is on the board of governors at a primary school in the ward.

Surrey county council division: Sunbury Common and Ashford Common
Parliamentary constituency: Spelthorne
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Bob Bromley (UKIP)
Bernie Spoor (LD)
Matthew Want (C)
John Went (Lab)

May 2011 result LD 1127/1094/881 C 528/489/467 UKIP 332
May 2007 result LD 1122/1087/966 C 602/545/485 Lab 175
May 2003 result LD 794/748/644 C 392/353/334 Lab 185

By-elections on Thursday 20th December:
Kent County Council and Gravesham District Council, Kent; both caused by the death of Conservative county and district councillor Mike Snelling at the age of 66.  A retired banker, he had been leader of Gravesham council from 2007 to 2011.

Cricket on Meopham Green
  © Copyright Jerry Clarke and licensed for reuse
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There are some wards where by-elections just seem to come up with amazing regularity, and Meopham North is definitely high up on that list.  This is the second by-election in the ward since Gravesham district council's ordinary election in May 2011, and the fourth since 2003 (one of which was a postponed poll after a candidate in the 2007 ordinary election died).  Neither of the Tory councillors elected for Meopham North in May 2011 now remain on the council, indicating a very high councillor attrition rate.

A previous incarnation of this column previewed the last Meopham North by-election in October 2011 thus:
"The Kentish village of Meopham (pronounced MEPPam) is located in the North Downs five miles south of Gravesend; this ward is the northern half of the Meopham parish and includes the whole of Meopham itself plus the hamlets of Meopham Green and Meopham Station; as the name suggests Meopham Station has a railway station on the London-Chatham main line, with trains taking 48 minutes to London Victoria; this makes Meopham a very well-off area popular with London commuters.  Under first-past-the-post Gravesham council has had a few wrong-winner results in recent years caused by the Tory votes piling up in super-safe wards, and this is one of those [wards]; the result in May was C 71.1% Lab 28.9%, and the local county council division (Gravesham Rural) had an even larger majority in 2009.  Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties plus UKIP."

That by-election, in October last year, had a few interesting features, chief among them possibly the first ever opinion poll for a UK local by-election.  ITN Meridian commissioned Survation to survey 300 people in the ward; the headline figures were C 52% UKIP 26% Lab 20% LD 2%, with the poll also showing strong opposition to plans to develop housing in the green belt at Meopham.  The Labour and Lib Dem figures turned out to be a bit off (the Lib Dems finished third) but it did indeed come to pass that UKIP were a strong second to the Conservatives, whose majority in the ward crashed to just 186 votes having never previously been under 400 votes.

The wider county division of Gravesham Rural covers a series of villages to the south and east of Gravesend, of which the largest are probably Meopham and Higham (on the Gravesend-Strood railway line).  It is super-super-safe Conservative; on a general election turnout in 2005 Snelling polled over 7,000 votes here and at his last re-election in 2009 he was the only candidate to poll over 4,000 in a single-member Kent division.  That translated to 60% of the vote, with the English Democrats finishing as best of the rest on 11% and Labour and the Lib Dems fourth and fifth behind the Greens.

This will be the last county council by-election before the ordinary county council elections in May, as new vacancies before May will now remain unfilled under the six-month rule and this is the last vacancy which occurred before that rule kicked in.  The Tories' choice of candidate for the county by-election will raise a few eyebrows; he is Bryan Sweetland, who is already a Kent county councillor for Gravesham East division and sits on the council's cabinet.  Having gained Gravesham East (which covers about two-thirds of Gravesend town) off Labour at the 2009 election with just 35% of the vote, it would appear that he's doing the chicken run to a safer seat.  (In that he is copying his colleague in that two-seat county division: John Cubitt, who won the last Meopham North district by-election.)  If Sweetland wins this by-election his seat in Gravesham East would become vacant, but with the six-month rule now operative there wouldn't be a further by-election.

Sweetland is opposed for the county by-election by three candidates, who don't include the English Democrats (runners-up here in 2009) or the Green Party (third here last year).  Douglas Christie, the Labour candidate in 2009, is standing again; he has fought a variety of wards within the division at Gravesham district level, including Meopham North in 2011.  The Lib Dems have a candidate with the tongue-twisting name of Gill McGill, who lives outside the division in Northfleet and is a regular candidate in Gravesend and Northfleet wards and county divisions.  Finally, UKIP's Geoffrey Clark is standing after his strong result in the October 2011 Meopham North by-election.

The Tory candidate to hold Mike Snelling's district council seat is local resident Julia Burgoyne, who has earned a tilt at a safe ward after three unsuccessful attempts at the safe-Labour ward of Northfleet South.  Geoffrey Clark doubles-up at district and county level for UKIP, as does Douglas Christie for Labour.  The ballot paper is completed by Gravesend-based Martin Wilson for the Liberal Democrats, whose most recent electoral outing was in Northfleet's Painters Ash ward last year.

Gravesham Rural
Gravesham district wards: Higham; Istead Rise; Meopham North; Meopham South and Vigo; Shorne, Cobham and Luddesdown
Parliamentary constituency: Gravesham
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Douglas Christie (Lab)
Geoffrey Clark (UKIP)
Gill McGill (LD)
Bryan Sweetland (C)

June 2009 result C 4109 EDP 740 Grn 722 Lab 652 LD 624
May 2005 result C 7083 Lab 2691 LD 1291 Grn 561 Loony 235

Meopham North
Kent county council division: Gravesham Rural
Parliamentary constituency: Gravesham
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Julia Burgoyne (C)
Douglas Christie (Lab)
Geoffrey Clark (UKIP)
Martin Wilson (LD)

Oct 2011 by-election C 648 UKIP 462 LD 148 Lab 112
May 2011 result C 1220/1051 Lab 497/389
June 2007 postponed poll C 681/682 LD 200/178 Grn 104 Lab 59/57 Loony 31
Jan 2004 by-election C 643 Lab 105 LD 58
May 2003 result C 892/887 Lab 243/216 Grn 190

That concludes the by-election previews for 2012.  This column wishes all its readers (hello Sid, hello Doris) a very merry Christmas and happy New Year, and will return in time for the first council by-election of 2013 on 17 January.

Friday, 14 December 2012

Lib Dems Continue Winning Streak Against Tories

The Liberal Democrats last night continued their recent winning streak in by-elections where the Conservatives have been defending.  Val Rodgers gained a seat in Bilton ward of Harrogate Borough Council on an impressive 12.5% swing - see the full result here.

Last week they also gained a seat in Shenfield, Brentwood, and two seats in Sunningwell and Wootton, Vale of White Horse after a double by-election there.

With the County Council elections now less than six months away, the Lib Dems could be on their way to picking up a number of seats in Lib Dem-Tory marginal divisions, which may help to start a recovery after their heavy losses in the Metropolitan Boroughs in the last two years.

It remains to be seen if the Lib Dems are capable of maintaining their current streak, but for all the coalition has damaged their electability in Labour areas, it seems to have ironically boosted their prospects against their own coalition partners.  Potentially, they could end up holding about as many councillors by 2015 but with an entirely new cohort from Conservative areas, having lost ground to Labour in other seats.

Monday, 10 December 2012

By-Election Preview: 13 December 2012

Andrew Teale provides the preview coverage for the only local by-election this week, taking place in Harrogate.

Harrogate District Council, North Yorkshire; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Alec Brown who is moving to London.

Bilton Library
  © Copyright Peter Wilson and licensed for reuse
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Bilton ward is the northernmost ward covering the town of Harrogate.  Described as one of the oldest areas of Harrogate, Bilton seems to have a bit of an identity of its own, with an annual gala having been held here since 1977.  Much of the northern boundary of the ward is the wooded Nidd Gorge, a local beauty spot.

The census figures suggest this is an extremely affluent area; all three of the ward's census areas are within the 20% least deprived in England, with one of them (covering the northern edge of the ward's housing and the sewage works) being in the least deprived 0.5%.

This being Harrogate, these demographics don't indicate a massively Conservative ward, for Harrogate town is a Lib Dem/Conservative marginal area.  The ward elected two Conservatives when drawn on its current boundaries in 2002, but the Lib Dems gained the Conservative seats in 2006 and 2007.  One of the Lib Dem councillors got sent to prison in late 2008 for internet grooming; sometimes this sort of thing can cause a backlash at the ballot box, but at the resulting by-election in February 2009 the Lib Dems got a swing in their favour and the ward looked safe.  The Liberal Democrat vote here grew further to reach 53.9% in 2010, but the Conservatives gained one of the seats at the most recent election here in 2011 to split the ward's representation again.

All four candidates live in Harrogate.  The Conservatives have selected Neil Bentley, who fought the neighbouring New Park ward in 2010, to hold their seat in the by-election.  His main opposition will come from the Lib Dems' Val Rodgers, who was their candidate in the town centre High Harrogate ward last year.  Andrew Gray, a solicitor, returns for Labour after standing here in 2011 and the 2009 by-election, and UKIP are standing in this ward for the first time in the form of David Simister, a former Conservative district councillor for the town's Harlow Moor ward.

Parliamentary constituency: Harrogate and Knaresborough
North Yorkshire county council division: Harrogate Bilton and Nidd Gorge
ONS Travel to Work Area: Harrogate and Ripon

Neil Bentley (C)
Andrew Gray (Lab) (@andrewgray74)
Val Rodgers (LD)
David Simister (UKIP)

May 2011 result C 976 LD 801 Lab 376
May 2010 result LD 1662 C 1241 BNP 181
Feb 2009 by-election LD 902 C 673 BNP 164 Lab 51
May 2007 result LD 974 C 877 BNP 122
May 2006 result LD 906 C 770 Lab 53
May 2003 result C 864 LD 770 Lab 66
May 2002 result C 798/776 LD 665 Lab 115

Tuesday, 4 December 2012

By-Elections Preview: 6 December 2012

England sees five by-elections on 6th December, including a rare double by-election for two seats in the same ward.  The Liberal Democrats are defending a seat in one of their local government strongholds in London, while the Conservatives need to fend off Liberal Democrat challenges to hold marginal seats in the Essex and Oxford commuter belts, but should have less trouble holding a safe ward in the Wolverhampton commuter belt.  There are also by-elections in Cornwall and Wales which will be covered in the relevant blogs.


Brentwood District Council, Essex; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Lionel Lee, in order to spend more time with his wife who is ill.  Lee had served for Shenfield ward since 2004 and had previously been an Essex county councillor from 1993 to 2009.

Shenfield Station
  © Copyright Stacey Harris and licensed for reuse
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Like St Erth in Cornwall (which also has a by-election today, see the Cornish Elections blog), Shenfield is a place probably best known for its railway station.  An outer suburb of the Essex town of Brentwood on the road to Chelmsford, Shenfield is the junction station for Southend-on-Sea off the Great Eastern main line and the terminus of the Great Eastern's inner-suburban service from Liverpool Street (which will become part of Crossrail from 2018).  This gives Shenfield a ridiculously frequent thirteen hourly trains to Liverpool Street, making it a perfect location for London commuters.  Shenfield's other claim to fame is that the minister of its church was once Nathaniel Ward, who wrote 'The Body of Liberties', the first constitution of Massachusetts.

For much of its recent electoral history, the ward has voted like a London commuter ward as a super-safe Conservative seat; the Tory vote peaked at 77.7% in both 2007 and 2008.  However, in May this year the Conservatives surprisingly lost the ward to the Liberal Democrats on a huge swing by the large margin of 242 votes.  I don't know why this is, although there are suggestions that the Conservative group on the council may be less than united.  The local county council division (Brentwood North) was a Liberal Democrat gain from the Conservatives in 2009, although the Lib Dem strength in the county division comes from Brentwood North and Pilgrims Hatch wards which have full slates of Lib Dem district councillors.

With the Tories having to defend another seat in the same ward less than seven months later this by-election could be very interesting.  The new Conservative candidate is Steve May, about whom I have no information, while the Liberal Democrats have selected 41-year-old mother-of-two Liz Cohen.  Labour and UKIP have both selected candidates who stood in neighbouring wards in May, Richard Millwood (from Brentwood North) and David Watt (from Hutton South, who stood here in 2011) respectively.

Parliamentary constituency: Brentwood and Ongar
Essex county council division: Brentwood North
ONS Travel to Work Area: Southend and Brentwood

Liz Cohen (LD) (@ShenfieldLiz)
Steve May (C)
Richard Millwood (Lab)
David Watt (UKIP)

May 2012 result LD 853 C 611 Lab 116
May 2011 result C 1286 LD 609 UKIP 191 Lab 184
May 2010 result C 1937 LD 1175 Lab 216
May 2008 result C 1303 LD 269 Lab 104 [C 77.7]
May 2007 result C 1254 LD 281 Lab 79 [C 77.7]
May 2006 result C 1419 LD 323 Lab 101 [C 77.0]
June 2004 result (double vacancy) C 1401/1318 LD 405/378 Lab 140/114
May 2003 result C 1141 LD 239 Lab 123 [C 75.9]
May 2002 result C 964/876/767 Ind 605 LD 337/313/292 Lab 124/118/81


Sutton London Borough Council, South London; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Brendan Hudson, who was Mayor of Sutton in 2009/10.  Hudson now has a politically restricted post as chair of NHS Sutton Clinical Commissioning Board.

Ridge Road Library, North Cheam
  © Copyright Noel Foster and licensed for reuse
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Another of the endless residential tracts that characterise south-west London, Stonecot ward falls into two main parts.  At the north-eastern end of the ward is the area around Sutton Common Road which is part of Sutton proper, while the south-western end is more properly part of North Cheam.  In the middle is Kimpton Industrial Estate, described by the council as "one of south London's key employment areas".

Sutton council is one of the longest-running sources of Liberal Democrat strength in the UK, having been continuously run by the yellow party since 1990.  The Conservatives fought back strongly in the 2006 election but failed to take control, and the Liberal Democrats increased their majority in 2010 and got a swing in their favour at a by-election earlier this year in Worcester Park ward, which borders Stonecot ward.  Stonecot ward was typical of this description of the wider borough; while the top Conservative was only 12 votes behind the third Lib Dem candidate in 2006, that gap widened to 694 votes in the 2010 election.

This May's London Assembly elections saw the ward vote strongly for Boris, who beat Ken by 58% to 25%; in the list section the Tories also topped the poll with 39%, with Labour beating the Lib Dems into second place and a relatively high UKIP vote (9%).

The five-strong field for the by-election is headed by the Liberal Democrats' Nick Emmerson, who is described as a freelance social interviewer, whatever that means.  His main challenge will come from the Tory candidate Graham Jarvis, a self-employed journalist and PR consultant.  Labour are standing former teacher Bonnie Craven, the Greens have nominated ex-Lib Dem councillor Joan Hartfield, and the UKIP candidate is retired aeronautical engineer Jeremy Wraith.  More information on the candidates can be found here.

Parliamentary constituency: Sutton and Cheam
GLA constituency: Croydon and Sutton
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Bonnie Craven (Lab)
Nick Emmerson (LD)
Joan Hartfield (Grn)
Graham Jarvis (C)
Jeremy Wraith (UKIP)

May 2010 result LD 3023/2664/2508 C 1814/1801/1774 Lab 632/490/459 BNP 413
May 2006 result LD 1590/1446/1425 C 1413/1370/1350 Lab 237/230/199
May 2002 result LD 1623/1679/1679 C 710/706/689 Lab 207/184/175
May 2012 GLA results (excludes postal voters)
Mayor: Boris 1225 Ken 522 Paddick 157 Benita 74 UKIP 72 Grn 40 BNP 33
List: C 826 Lab 443 LD 349 UKIP 200 Grn 90 BNP 77 EDP 52 CPA 49 Alagaratnam 17 NF 15 TUSC 12 House Party 4 Hayat 2


Vale of White Horse District Council, Oxfordshire; a rare double by-election caused by the resignation of Jane Crossley for undisclosed reasons and the disqualification of Tim Foggin who failed to attend any meetings of the council in six months.  The Conservatives will be defending both seats in this two-seat ward.
"Runs it not here, the track by Childsworth Farm,

Past the high wood, to where the elm-tree crowns
The hill behind whose ridge the sunset flames?
The signal-elm, that looks on Ilsley Downs,
The Vale, the three lone weirs, the youthful Thames?--
This winter-eve is warm,
Humid the air! leafless, yet soft as spring,
The tender purple spray on copse and briers!
And that sweet city with her dreaming spires,
She needs not June for beauty's heightening."
-Matthew Arnold, "Thyrsis"

Now here's a slice of rural/commuter England in the Oxford area.  Despite the order of the names, the largest village in this ward is Wootton, on the road from Abingdon to Eynsham about three miles north-west of Abingdon.  To the west of Wootton is the tiny parish of Besselsleigh on the Oxford-Swindon road, while the village of Sunningwell lies at the ward's eastern end.  To the north-east of Wootton can be found Boars Hill, whose views of Oxford, the Vale and the upper Thames valley inspired Matthew Arnold's poem "Thyrsis", quoted above.  That poem attracted lots of people to settle on Boars Hill; the settlers built houses with fences and walls and planted trees, which had the effect of spoiling the view for modern generations.

Abingdon and the surrounding area is another strong Liberal Democrat area, but unlike Sutton the Tories have been making serious inroads in recent years and are now clearly in the ascendency here, having gained from the Liberal Democrats the two county council divisions covering the ward in 2009, the parliamentary seat (Oxford West and Abingdon) in 2010 from shadow minister Evan Harris, and this ward's two district council seats in 2011.

On the 2011 result this ward still just about counts as a marginal, and the Liberal Democrats will hope that they can profit from the double vacancy to win at least one seat back.  The Tories can take some comfort from the fact that the by-election is a straight Tory-Lib Dem fight and there is no UKIP candidate this time.  The defending Conservatives are Adam Hardiman and Richard Treffler, both of whom live in Oxford; Hardiman is a semi-retired computer engineer who is a parish councillor and tuba player with the City of Oxford Silver Band, while Treffler works for the kitchen and electrical appliances manufacturer Miele.  The challenging Liberal Democrats, both from Boars Hill, are retired social worker Elizabeth Miles and former district councillor Valerie Shaw, who lost her seat in this ward in 2011 but still sits on Wootton parish council.

Parliamentary constituency: Oxford West and Abingdon
Oxfordshire county council divisions: Kennington and Radley (Sunningwell parish), Wootton (rest of ward)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Oxford

Adam Hardiman (C)
Elizabeth Miles (LD)
Valerie Shaw (LD)
Richard Treffler (C)

May 2011 result C 854/814 LD 666/589 UKIP 255 Lab 178
May 2007 result LD 887/846 C 487/476
May 2003 result LD 816/725 C 376/354 Lab 102


South Staffordshire District Council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Joan Williams at the age of 81.  A member of South Staffordshire council since 1979, she had served as the council's cabinet member for environmental services.
Walkers Way, Wombourne
  © Copyright A Holmes and licensed for reuse
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One of many claimants to the title of "largest village in England", Wombourne is in the long tail of the curiously-shaped South Staffordshire district, which runs along the western edge of the West Midlands metropolitan county.  Wombourne is off the A449 Wolverhampton-Kidderminster road, and is the first village encountered after leaving the Wolverhampton built-up area.  The village is close enough to the Black Country to have some industry thanks to its location on the Staffordshire and Worcestershire Canal; historically it was a small centre for nail-making, while today one of the major employers in Wombourne is McCain's, who have a plant here making frozen potato products.

The Wombourne North and Lower Penn ward, one of three covering the town, also takes in the much smaller village of Lower Penn to the north.

Unlike the two other commuter belt wards the Conservatives are defending this week, Wombourne politics are not seriously contested.  The Conservatives won the ward unopposed in 2007 and in 2011 the only non-Conservative candidate contesting the ward's three seats was a single UKIP candidate.

The ballot paper for this by-election has three candidates.  Barry Bond, the new Conservative candidate, fought the strongly Independent ward of Essington in the 2011 election.  His main opposition from UKIP's Lyndon Jones, the opposition candidate from 2011 who is trying again.  Both Bond and Jones live in Wombourne; the remaining candidate, Labour's John Brindle, is from Featherstone at the other end of Wolverhampton, and was runner-up in his home ward last year.

Parliamentary constituency: South Staffordshire
Staffordshire county council division: Wombourne
ONS Travel to Work Area: Wolverhampton

May 2011 result C 1345/1267/1236 UKIP 707
May 2007 result 3 C unopposed
May 2003 result C 976/971/965 Ind 688

Barry Bond (C)
John Brindle (Lab)
Lyndon Jones (UKIP)

Monday, 26 November 2012

By-Elections Preview: 29 November 2012

29th November 2012 will be the largest remaining electoral test of the year.  As well as three parliamentary by-elections in the safe Labour seats of Croydon North, Middlesbrough and Rotherham, there are three local by-elections.  One is an SNP defence in the Outer Hebrides, while the Liberal Democrats will fancy their chances in both of the polls on the mainland: a Conservative defence in a C/LD marginal in Warwickshire, and a Labour defence in a Lab/LD marginal in south London which is the first subject of this week's column.

Southwark London borough council, South London; caused by the death of Labour councillor Helen Morrissey.

Heygate Estate from Strata SE1 tower
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reuse under this Creative Commons Licence.
Running east from the Elephant and Castle junction, East Walworth ward runs along the southern edge of the New Kent and Old Kent Roads as far as Burgess Park.  It includes the notorious Heygate Estate, described as one of the starkest examples of post-war urban decay in Britain.  Southwark council are currently trying to regenerate the area and demolition started on the Heygate Estate last year.  This may have contributed to a fall in the ward's population to 11,557 in the recently-released 2011 Census population figures; the Census was taken in the month that demolition work began.  The 2001 census found a population figure of exactly 12,000, of which 29% were black (and over 20% Black African) and 27% born outside the EU-15.

You might have thought that these demographics would create just another inner London safe Labour ward.  The reason why this is not the case can be summed up in two words: Simon Hughes.  East Walworth ward is part of Hughes' constituency of Bermondsey and Old Southwark, and the Lib Dem machine which keeps re-electing him hasn't seized up yet.  While East Walworth is arguably the most Labour-inclined ward in that constituency - it was the only ward in the seat where Labour topped the poll at the 2006 Southwark borough elections - it elected three Liberal Democrat councillors in 2002 and the Lib Dems held the ward in a February 2004 by-election.  Labour gained two seats in 2006 and got a clean sweep of the ward's three seats in 2010, on the same day Hughes was re-elected, but the 2010 result was a close-run thing with the third Labour candidate just 103 votes ahead of the leading Lib Dem.  The most recent electoral test here was the 2012 GLA election in which the Lib Dems had one of their best results in London here, holding second place with 14% of the vote (to 55% for Labour; Ken beat Boris here 57-23).

So, an interesting by-election is in prospect which is contested only by the three main parties.  The defending Labour candidate is Rebecca Lury, a 25-year-old PR worker.  Her main challenge will come from the top Lib Dem candidate in 2010, biologist Dr Ben Johnson who at 31 is the oldest of the three candidates.  Rounding off the ballot paper is 29-year-old Conservative candidate Stuart Millson from East Dulwich.  Southwark Talking News has sent a questionnaire to all the candidates and has put recordings of the results on the internet; see the links below.  All three candidates are on Twitter; in alphabetical order they are @drbenjohnson, @rebeccalury and @Stuart_Millson.

Parliamentary constituency: Bermondsey and Old Southwark
GLA constituency: Lambeth and Southwark
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Ben Johnson (LD) 
Rebecca Lury (Lab)
Stuart Millson (C)

May 2010 result Lab 1931/1892/1870 LD 1767/1740/1441 C 530/466/458 Grn 373
May 2006 result Lab 1488/1432/1403 LD 1452/1410/1296 C 305/251/236 Ind 208
Feb 2004 by-election LD 1477 Lab 978 C 86 Grn 82 Ind 11
May 2002 result LD 1200/1189/1064 Lab 716/680/660 C 115/101/97 Grn 91/88/78 Socialist Alliance 80/80 Ind 55
2012 GLA results (excludes postal voters)
Mayor: Ken 1352 Boris 552 Paddick 183 Grn 123 Benita 83 UKIP 40 BNP 23
List: Lab 1296 LD 327 C 286 Grn 213 UKIP 88 CPA 45 BNP 32 TUSC 32 EDP 28 House Party 13 NF 9 Alagaratnam 0 Hayat 0

Stratford-on-Avon district council, Warwickshire; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Jon Gullis to take up a new job in London.
Shipston on Stour
© Copyright Stephen McKay and licensed for
reuse under this Creative Commons Licence.

The youngest member of the council, elected eighteen months ago at the age of 21, his resignation came three hours too late for the by-election to be combined with the Warwickshire Police and Crime Commissioner election.  Gullis had refused to hand in resignation until a replacement candidate was selected, but the local Conservatives had been unwilling to select a replacement candidate before Gullis resigned.

This column finishes for the week in the English Midlands and the southernmost town in Warwickshire.  Shipston-on-Stour can be found ten miles south of Stratford-upon-Avon on the road to Oxford.  A prosperous market town in medieval times, the "Ship" of the name refers to sheep which, along with coaching inns, formed much of the local economy.

Shipston ward has the same boundaries as Shipston-on-Stour town council.  For the last decade it has consistently been a Liberal Democrat/Conservative marginal; the two seats split C/LD when the current boundaries were introduced in 2002, but since then the Conservatives have only won the ward in 2004 and 2011.  There have been some very close results over the years (Lib Dem majority of 51 in 2007, Lib Dem majority of 13 in 2008, Conservative majority of 17 in 2011).  The May result in the ward was rather atypical, with the Conservative vote more than halving and the Labour vote almost doubling so that Labour finished second, the Liberal Democrat councillor (who is currently group leader) convincingly holding his seat.  It appears that there was a major controversy in the town over a supermarket development which the Labour candidate supported.

Defending a 17-vote majority and having finished third in the previous election is not where the Conservatives will have wanted to be leading up to this by-election.  Their candidate is Marion Lowe, the Shipston town crier.  The Liberal Democrat candidate is Laura Nelson, who fought Aston Cantlow ward in May.  Completing the ballot paper, Labour's Jeff Kenner will hope to build on his good performance in May; he has apparently been endorsed by outgoing councillor Gullis.

Parliamentary constituency: Stratford-on-Avon
Warwickshire county council division: Shipston-on-Stour
ONS Travel to Work Area: Warwick and Stratford-upon-Avon

Jeffrey Kenner (Lab) (@JeffKenner1)
Marion Lowe (C)
Laura Nelson (LD) (@Laura_e_Nelson)

May 2012 result LD 752 Lab 501 C 423 Grn 61
May 2011 result C 883 LD 866 Lab 262
May 2010 by-election LD 1376 C 1108 Lab 315 Grn 70
May 2008 result LD 934 C 921 Lab 64
May 2007 result LD 952 C 901 Lab 83
June 2004 result C 897 LD 778
May 2003 result LD 853 C 642
May 2002 result C 729/700 LD 728/615

Friday, 23 November 2012

Lib Dems Back In Shepway After Folkestone Win

The Lib Dems won a seat back on Shepway District Council in yesterday's Folkestone Park by-election.  They were wiped out on the council they formerly ran in the 2011 elections, but the return of former Folkestone Park Councillor Lynne Beaumont suggests a start of a reversal in their fortunes.

There was a very substantial 14.0% swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems.  This seems to be at least in part due to parking issues in Folkestone, which Beaumont featured prominently in her campaign.  She also seems to have a large personal vote, having won the largest Lib Dem vote in 2011, and being the only Lib Dem to survive in this ward after the 2007 election.  There was little movement in the results of the other party's candidates, with People First and Labour down just slightly with UKIP improving on their previous result and the Greens standing for the first time.

Shepway District Council is currently dominated by the Conservatives, who hold 43 out of the 46 seats.  Two are held by People First (a local independent group formed by former Lib Dems) and Beaumont becomes the third opposition member.  The Lib Dems had majority control between 2003 and 2004, but collapsed after the major split which created People First.

Full result.

Wednesday, 21 November 2012

By-Election Preview: 22 November 2012

With the farcical Police Commissioner elections now out of the way, normal service resumes on the local by-election front with one poll on Thursday 22nd November, which fills a vacancy that occurred just too late to be combined with the Police Commissioner elections.

We are now in the "six-month rule" period as there are less than six months to go to the May 2013 local elections in which the English county councils, some ex-county councils which have gone down the unitary route, one-third of Bristol City Council (thanks to its unique electoral cycle) and Anglesey County Council in Wales are up for re-election.  The six-month rule means that there will not be any by-elections to replace councillors who would have been up for re-election in 2013, so there will be no county council by-elections for a little while.  At least one vacancy which falls under this rule has already been reported (in Ludgvan division, Cornwall).

This column continues a series which was previously published on the Britain-Votes blog.  It appears that the people behind Britain-Votes have moved on to other projects; nonetheless I am grateful to them for their support over the last year and even more grateful to Kris for allowing me to hijack his blogs in the same way as I did to Britain-Votes.  Anyway...


Shepway District Council, Kent; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Tristan Allen.

Folkestone Academy
  © Copyright David Anstiss and licensed for 
reuse under this Creative Commons Licence.
Off to the south coast and the town of Folkestone, the major town within the curiously-named Shepway district.  Folkestone has had a few industries over the years, although they are all connected with its location as a Channel port.  The coming of the railways in 1843 transformed the town into both a bustling ferry port (the South Eastern Railway essentially rebuilt the harbour to handle steam packets for Boulogne) and a resort with a sandy beach.  There are no passenger ferries from Folkestone now, thanks to competition from a more recent development up the hill at the other end of town: the Channel Tunnel, which surfaces at Castle Hill just north of Folkestone and is a major local employer.

Folkestone's Park ward, one of nine covering the town, can be found at the northern end of the built-up area, running from the railway line at the south end to the end of the M20 motorway at the north end.  At the southern end of the ward is Folkestone Central railway station, with three trains per hour to Dover and London (one of which reaches London in less than an hour thanks to the high-speed line).  The deprivation indices suggest that the area around the station and Radnor Park is seriously run-down, with the ward's other three census areas being around the English average.

This ward elected three Liberal Democrats in 2003 fairly comfortably; the Conservatives gained two seats at the 2007 election and got a full slate in 2011 by a very comfortable margin.  The Lib Dems were completely wiped out on Shepway council in 2011 - having controlled it until 2007 - and the only opposition to the Conservatives consists of two "People First" councillors from Folkestone Foord ward.

The defending Conservative candidate is Leo Griggs, a parish councillor in the coastal parish of Sandgate which is to all intents and purposes part of Folkestone.  The Liberal Democrats' Lynne Beaumont will hope to get back on the council quickly after losing her seat in this ward in 2011.  Another unsuccessful candidate from 2011 standing again is Patricia Copping of the People First party.  Labour's Nicola Keen wants to reverse the recent introduction of on-street parking charges in Folkestone.  Hod Birkby is standing for UKIP, and the ballot paper is completed by Green Party candidate Derek Moran.

Tristan Allen also sat on Folkestone town council, and there is a simultaneous by-election for the town council in the same ward.  All the candidates are contesting both by-elections, with the exception of Moran who lives in the next-door town of Hythe; he is replaced by another Green candidate.

Lynne Beaumont (LD)

Hod Birkby (UKIP)
Patricia Copping (People First)
Leo Griggs (C)
Nicola Keen (Lab)
Derek Moran (Grn)

Parliamentary constituency: Folkestone and Hythe

Kent county council division: Folkestone North East
ONS Travel to Work Area: Folkestone

May 2011 result C 966/940/802 LD 569/428/403 People First 336/258/200 Lab 279 UKIP 217

May 2007 result LD 684/581/555 C 624/614/594 Ind 384 Shepway Ind 293/135 People First 174/122/104 UKIP 111
May 2003 result LD 1015/1015/984 C 798/652/649

Lib Dem Goes Green in Malvern

The Green Party have reported that Cllr Clive Smith has joined them from the Liberal Democrats.  Smith is currently a councillor on both Worcestershire County Council (covering the Malvern Link division) and Malvern Hills District Council (Link ward), as well as being a member of Malvern Town Council.

In the last election for Malvern Hills, Link was a very closely fought split ward, electing two Conservatives and the Lib Dem Smith.  Smith won the most votes in the contest, significantly ahead of his fellow Lib Dem running mate.  The Greens' Julian Roskams was only six votes short of taking a seat at the expense of the Conservatives.  The county council division was contested in 2009, with Smith narrowly beating the Conservatives - in that contest the Greens came a distant fourth.

The defection gives the Greens their first ever councillor on Worcestershire County Council - a major local milestone for them.  Given their poor performance in the county division in 2009 however, it remains to be seen whether they can hold that seat past next May.  Smith's electoral history does however suggest he has a strong personal vote independent of party ties.  The Greens already had groups on Malvern Town Council and Malvern Hills District Council, and Smith's defection brings their total number to three on each of those bodies.

Worcestershire County Council
Lib Dems-1
Health Concern2-
Residents Association1-

Malvern Hills District Council
Lib Dems10-1